Understanding clouds to anticipate future climate

Humanity has a primordial fascination with clouds. The meteorological and hydrological communities have come to understand through decades of observation and research that cloud processes – from the microphysics of initial nucleation to superstorms viewed from satellites – provide vital information for weather prediction, and for precipitation in particular. Looking at clouds from a climate perspective introduces new and difficult questions that challenge our overall assumptions about how our moist, cloudy atmosphere actually works. Clouds are one of the main modulators of heating in the atmosphere, controlling many other aspects of the climate system. Thus, “Clouds, Circulation and Climate Sensitivity” is one of the World Climate Research Programmes (WCRP) seven Grand Challenges. These Grand Challenges represent areas of emphasis in scientific research, modelling, analysis and observations for WCRP and its affiliate projects in the coming decade

The radiative impact of clouds on the shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone

Whereas it is well established that clouds are important to changes in Earth's surface temperature, their impact on changes of the large-scale atmospheric circulation is less well understood. Here we study the radiative impact of clouds on the shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in response to hemispheric surface albedo forcings. The problem is approached using aquaplanet simulations with four comprehensive atmosphere models. The radiative impact of clouds on the ITCZ shift differs in sign and magnitude across models and is responsible for half of the model spread in the ITCZ shift. The model spread is dominated by tropical clouds whose radiative impact is linked to the dependence of their cloud radiative properties on the circulation. The simulations not only demonstrate the importance of clouds for circulation changes but also propose a way to reduce the model uncertainty in ITCZ shifts. © 2014 American Geophysical Union

KNMI EUCLIPSE Policy Brief

Policy brief on implications of the project results on the climate decision making process. 54 month

Strong cloud–circulation coupling explains weak trade cumulus feedback

Shallow cumulus clouds in the trade-wind regions cool the planet by reflecting solar radiation. The response of trade cumulus clouds to climate change is a key uncertainty in climate projections. Trade cumulus feedbacks in climate models are governed by changes in cloud fraction near cloud base with high-climate-sensitivity models suggesting a strong decrease in cloud-base cloudiness owing to increased lower-tropospheric mixing. Here we show that new observations from the EUREC4A (Elucidating the role of cloud-circulation coupling in climate) field campaign refute this mixing-desiccation hypothesis. We find the dynamical increase of cloudiness through mixing to overwhelm the thermodynamic control through humidity. Because mesoscale motions and the entrainment rate contribute equally to variability in mixing but have opposing effects on humidity, mixing does not desiccate clouds. The magnitude, variability and coupling of mixing and cloudiness differ markedly among climate models and with the EUREC4A observations. Models with large trade cumulus feedbacks tend to exaggerate the dependence of cloudiness on relative humidity as opposed to mixing and also exaggerate variability in cloudiness. Our observational analyses render models with large positive feedbacks implausible and both support and explain at the process scale a weak trade cumulus feedback. Our findings thus refute an important line of evidence for a high climate sensitivit

Ringberg15: Earth's climate sensitivity. 23-27 March, Schloss Ringberg, Germany

To assess gaps in understanding of Earth’s climate sensitivities a workshop was organised under the auspices of the WCRP Grand Science Challenge on Clouds, Circulation and Climate Sensitivity (Ringberg15). The workshop took place in March 2015 and gathered together over thirty experts from around the world for one week. Attendees each gave short presentations and participated in moderated discussions of specific questions related to understanding Earth’s climate sensitivities. Most of the time was focused on understanding of the equilibrium climate sensitivity, defined as the equilibrium near-surface warming associated with a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide. The workshop produced nine recommendations, many of them focusing on specific research avenues that could be exploited to advance understanding of climate sensitivity. Many of these dealt, in one fashion or another, with the need to more sharply focus research on identifying and testing story lines for a high (larger than 4K) or low (less than 2 K) equilibrium climate sensitivity. Additionally, a subset of model intercomparison projects (CFMIP, PMIP, PDRMIP, RFMIP and VolMIP) that have been proposed for inclusion within CMIP were identified as being central to resolving important issues raised at the workshop; for this reason modelling groups were strongly encouraged to participate in these projects. Finally the workshop participants encouraged the WCRP to initiate and support an assessment process lead by the Grand Science Challenge on Clouds, Circulation and Climate Sensitivity on the topic of Earth’s Climate Sensitivities, culminating in a report that will be published in 2019, forty years after the seminal report by Charney and co-authors

Laplacian Growth, Elliptic Growth, and Singularities of the Schwarz Potential

The Schwarz function has played an elegant role in understanding and in generating new examples of exact solutions to the Laplacian growth (or "Hele- Shaw") problem in the plane. The guiding principle in this connection is the fact that "non-physical" singularities in the "oil domain" of the Schwarz function are stationary, and the "physical" singularities obey simple dynamics. We give an elementary proof that the same holds in any number of dimensions for the Schwarz potential, introduced by D. Khavinson and H. S. Shapiro [17] (1989). A generalization is also given for the so-called "elliptic growth" problem by defining a generalized Schwarz potential. New exact solutions are constructed, and we solve inverse problems of describing the driving singularities of a given flow. We demonstrate, by example, how \mathbb{C}^n - techniques can be used to locate the singularity set of the Schwarz potential. One of our methods is to prolong available local extension theorems by constructing "globalizing families". We make three conjectures in potential theory relating to our investigation

Minimal recipes for global cloudiness

Clouds are primary modulators of Earth’s energy balance. It is thus important to understand the links connecting variabilities in cloudiness to variabilities in other state variables of the climate system, and also describe how these links would change in a changing climate. A conceptual model of global cloudiness can help elucidate these points. In this work we derive simple representations of cloudiness, that can be useful in creating a theory of global cloudiness. These representations illustrate how both spatial and temporal variability of cloudiness can be expressed in terms of basic state variables. Specifically, cloud albedo is captured by a nonlinear combination of pressure velocity and a measure of the low-level stability, and cloud longwave effect is captured by surface temperature, pressure velocity, and standard deviation of pressure velocity. We conclude with a short discussion on the usefulness of this work in the context of global warming response studies

Climate Model Intercomparisons: Preparing for the Next Phase

Since 1995, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) has coordinated climate model experiments involving multiple international modeling teams. Through CMIP, climate modelers and scientists from around the world have analyzed and compared state-of-the-art climate model simulations to gain insights into the processes, mechanisms, and conswquences of climate variability and climate change